VistaGen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VTGN) Featured Research Report

19 A EGIS C APITAL C ORP. Modeling assumptions We credit PH94B and PH10 in our valuation, while treating AV-101 as option value, at this stage. We use historical precedents regarding est. WAC. We assume patent expiry for PH94B in a 2028 timeframe, and for PH10 in a 2033 timeframe. Our choice of discount rate (25%) and market share are meant to reflect a conservative stance. PoS estimates are derived from industry data (BIO). Fig. 8. Revenue model 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 PH94B (U.S. market - Social Anxiety Disorder) SAD patients 15,678,000 15,991,560 16,311,391 16,637,619 16,970,371 17,309,779 17,655,974 18,009,094 18,369,276 18,736,661 19,111,395 19,493,622 19,883,495 20,281,165 Market share 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% PH94B patients 326,228 665,505 169,704 346,196 529,679 720,364 918,464 796,308 649,787 477,594 288,311 294,077 Avg. months of treatment 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 WAC /mo $295 $295 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 $135 $135 $135 $135 $135 PoS 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% Revenue $63,197,663 $386,769,698 $591,757,638 $804,790,388 $1,026,107,745 $316,054,687 $257,900,624 $189,556,959 $114,430,507 $116,719,117 Growth 512% 53% 36% 28% -69% -18% -27% -40% 2% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 PH10 (U.S. market - Major Depressive Disorder) MDD patients (2L) 11,524,000 11,754,480 11,989,570 12,229,361 12,473,948 12,723,427 12,977,896 13,237,454 13,502,203 13,772,247 14,047,692 14,328,646 14,615,218 14,907,523 Market share 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% PH10 patients 239,791 244,587 498,958 127,234 259,558 397,124 540,088 688,612 877,981 1,060,320 1,227,678 1,401,307 Avg. months of treatment 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 WAC /mo $295 $295 $295 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 $380 PoS 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% Revenue $11,216,973 $45,765,251 $70,020,835 $95,228,335 $121,416,127 $154,805,562 $186,955,582 $216,464,246 $247,078,476 Growth 308% 53% 36% 28% 28% 21% 16% 14% Source: Aegis Capital estimates VistaGen Therapeutics, Inc. October 8, 2020